A year into the Trump era, President Trump is living up to his advance billing as a “black swan” event for American politics — disrupting everything he touches. He has opened divisions and brought chaos to both parties, and the turmoil is not going to abate with the midterm election next year, no matter what the result. The GOP may never be the same, while a lurch further to the populist left by Democrats might be a formula for additional electoral disaster. The culture wars have gone thermonuclear, with institutions such as the NFL suddenly embroiled in heightened political controversy.
Trump’s critics on both left and right may claim vindication from the latest public opinion polls showing Trump’s personal approval rating at 38% or less, the lowest ever for a first-year president. This is an abysmal rating at a time of accelerating economic growth, near-full employment, rising consumer and business confidence, and no major foreign crisis or war under way.
But given the intra-party divisions, lack of legislative progress in Congress, and the general tumult around the White House, perhaps it is more remarkable that Trump’s approval rating is as high as it is. This reflects the solidity of his base, which remains as enthusiastic for Trump today as it was during the campaign.
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