If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential primary, he is almost a shoo-in to win the presidency this November, a Stony Brook University professor predicts.
Professor Helmut Norpoth's statistical model, which looks at a candidate's performance in their party's presidential primary and factors in the broader electoral cycle, shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election, reported Stony Brook's newspaper The Statesman. His odds rise to 99 percent against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
The professor of political science presented his 2016 forecast at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan on Monday.
"Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent. This is almost too much to believe," Norpoth said as he showed his forecast for that potential matchup, using data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. "The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It's almost 'Take it to the bank.'"
The model's high confidence in a Trump win is due to his relatively high success so far, Norporth said. The model also factors in the electoral cycle, which makes it difficult for a party to hold the White House three terms in a row, as the Democrats are trying to do in 2016....
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