Saturday, July 21, 2012 | rightcoast
Yes, there is still four months to go, and an electoral map prediction seems ill-advised and premature... But what the heck...
I based my projections on a modified RCP poll average: I included only recent polls of likely voters, ignoring RV polls. I also used a more conservative version of the "incumbent rule" for the undecideds in these LV polls. Certain theory holds that 80% of undecided voters will break for the challenger. For this analysis, I was more conservative and assume that 65% of undecideds will ultimately vote for Romney.
Based on these criteria and assumptions, I've arrived at a prediction of exactly 270 votes for Romney, just enough for election. Two states remain very tight and too close to call: Colorado and Ohio.
Click here for my custom RCP map.
It's worth noting that money of the "close states" could end up breaking for Romney, especially in the Midwest; a "Rust Belt sweep" that includes Michigan and Pennsylvania, as well as the aforementioned Ohio, is still quite possible at this point.
DIOGENES invites you to pull up a chair on this fine day and read posts from around the world. The writing may lean to the right...but that's the way Diogenes wants it! You may leave your opinion, but Diogenes rarely changes his! WELCOME!
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