Thursday, October 20, 2016

Group of Statisticians, Actuaries Reveals Trump Landslide in the Making

Conservative Tribune ^ | 10/20/2016 

If you listened to the mainstream media, you might be tempted to believe that Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican rival Donald Trump in the polls by double digits. However, it’s no secret that polls can be manipulated to a yield certain result.
A group of statisticians and actuaries compiled data from previous polls to show how just how unreliable polls can be. They took data from a recent Fox poll from Oct. 14 that showed Clinton ahead of Trump by seven points and a WSJ/NBC poll from Oct. 16 that showed Clinton with an 11-point lead.
The statisticians first noted that both of these polls were “heavily skewed” toward Democrats. The Fox sample group consisted of 43 percent Democrats to 36 Republicans to 21 “other,” and the NBC poll showed 44 percent Democrats to 37 Republicans to 19 “other.”
Simply put, by selecting more Democrats to participate in the polls, they are tailored to favor a Democrat result.
When the actuaries calculated results using the same data from the same surveys with an even split of 40 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 20 “other,” they got a different result, which put Trump in the lead.
The statisticians also looked at past polls from 1980 and 1988, where Democrats were favored to win but ended up losing. In 1980, Jimmy Carter was ahead of Ronald Reagan 47 to 39. Reagan ended up winning the election in a landslide. In 1998, Michael Dukakis was ahead of George H. W. Bush by 17 points, and Bush ended up winning the election easily.
This election season has been unlike any other in recent years, and independent voters, as well as undecided voters, remain difficult to predict.
(Excerpt) Read more at ...

SUNY Professer: Trump Now Has 87% Chance of Winning Election!

Gateway Pundit ^ | 10/20/2016 | Jim Hoft 

A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year’s election and he’s critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.
Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.
Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.
That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.
Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are “bunk.”
The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don’t reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They’re about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can’t tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.
“It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty,” he says. “So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through.”
Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates’ performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.
Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election.
(Excerpt) Read more at ...

Such a nasty woman ^ | 10/20/16 | J. Marsolo 

At the end of the debate, while Hillary was droning on with snippets rehearsed, Trump gave the best description of Hillary. He said, "Such a nasty woman." Who could disagree with that? She is nasty and a woman.
On substance and manner, Trump was clearly the winner. Hillary gave her usual robotic answers sprinkled with cheap shots, which is her preparation for the past week.
Trump brought out that the violence at his rally in Chicago and other rallies was caused by operatives of the Clinton campaign. Hillary did not deny it.
On the Middle East disaster in Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Libya, Trump clearly stated that Obama and Hillary, as secretary of state, caused the disaster by withdrawing from Iraq without leaving a force. Hilary did not deny it.
(Excerpt) Read more at ...

IRS Corruption Fuels Billions in Fraudulent Payments to Illegal Aliens

Breitbart ^ | 4/16/2016 | Tom Tancredo 

"Imagine my surprise when I found a pile of IRS 1040 tax returns among the tons of trash at a “lay-up site” used by illegal border jumpers near the Mexican border west of Douglas, Arizona. There are dozens of such places where the thousands of border invaders change clothes, discard trash and wait to be taken by their “coyote” to their pick-up location for moving on to Phoenix or El Paso or Houston.
The IRS 1040 forms were filled out and had been used. Hey, who says illegal aliens don’t pay taxes?
I collected the 1040 forms and we noticed all had claimed Earned Income Tax Credits and all also had claimed around nine deductions for children. The average refund was around $4,000. It occurred to me only much later that the American taxpayer may be funding the coyote’s $1,500 fees for smuggling poor Mexicans, Salvadorans — and Iraqis and Vietnamese — across our southwest border.
When I sent the 1040 forms to the Social Security Administration and the IRS, I was told that the practice described in the FORBES article was the one being followed in dealing with these returns. I tried to amend the appropriations bills for the IRS to be the practice, but I got nowhere. My Republican colleagues didn’t want to hear about it and were ticked at me for bringing it up.
Illegal aliens use “the system” to report income and also gain every possible “refund” the tax law — and IRS collusion — allows. Who can blame them when the welcome sign is in bright green neon letters?"
(Excerpt) Read more at ...

Hillary Took Algeria Off Terror Watch List After Donation to Clinton Foundation

The Gateway Pundit ^ | Oct 20th, 2016 | Jim Hoft 

A new Wikileaks document reveals Hillary took Algeria off the US terror watch list after they made a hefty donation to the Clinton Foundation’s Haiti relief project.

How is that legal?

The Clinton camp was discussing Joe Scarborough’s discussion on the Algerian donations to the Clinton Foundation. The Clinton advisors defended the move in the email saying it’s “legal gray area.”
(Excerpt) Read more at ...

Opposing Planned Parenthood is now a criminal activity [CA]

Spectator (UK) ^ | 20 October 2016 

In signing a bill that criminalizes the distribution of a “confidential” video of a “health-care provider,” Gov. Jerry Brown has at least dispensed with the notion that California’s Democratic leadership cares at all about free-speech rights.

 The new law, which could lead to jail time for violators, is the latest troubling example of how tenuous America’s political rights may be when one political party controls virtually every apparatus of power.

Assembly Bill 1671 is a direct response to an activist group that last year released disturbing undercover videos of Planned Parenthood officials who were, according to a July 2015 report in the Washington Post, “discussing in graphic detail how to abort a fetus to preserve its organs for medical research — as well as the costs associated with sharing that tissue with scientists.”

Planned Parenthood’s defenders claim the video was “doctored” and deny any illegal profit-seeking, but it’s clear why abortion’s defenders would like to put the kibosh on video recordings that discuss this gruesome business in anything but euphemistic terms.
(Excerpt) Read more at ...

Scarborough Rips MSM’s Hypocritical ‘Freak Out’ Over Trump Refusal to Blindly Accept Election Result

Legal Insurrection ^ | Mark Finkelstein 

Every couple of weeks, Joe Scarborough rebuilds lost conservative street cred by going on a good rant against liberals and the MSM. He did so in spades on today’s Morning Joe, comprehensively crushing libs for their hypocrisy in “freaking out” over Trump’s wait-and-see answer at last night’s debate to the question of whether he’d accept the results of the election.
Excerpts: “the media got something they can absolutely freak out about and claim that he is an agent of Vladimir Putin and destroying democracy in America and it’s just another example of the media having to find a little phrase and freak out when as a Republican I have listened to Democrats talk about the only two times we won the White House in like 800 years that we stole both elections . . . hell, even Bernie Sanders supporters just six months ago were saying that Hillary Clinton was rigging the election.”
View the video here.
(Excerpt) Read more at ...

Obama Emailed Hillary and Was Aware

Wikileaks ^ 

Full content at link, but here's a sample:

The Bernie Sanders Effect ^ | October 20, 2016 | Cal Thomas 

Many millennials are OK with socialism, even communism, according to a YouGov poll commissioned by The Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation.
Forty-five percent of those polled between the ages of 16 and 20 years old said they would vote for a socialist, while 20 percent said they could vote for a communist. Maybe that explains the Che Guevara T-shirts so many of them like to wear.
Responding to the poll, Marion Smith, the executive director of the organization, said, "An emerging generation of Americans has little understanding of the collectivist system and its dark history." Partial credit for this should go to former presidential candidate and avowed socialist Bernie Sanders.
Even more shocking is the poll's discovery that a third of millennials believe more people were killed under George W. Bush than Joseph Stalin, whose regime murdered 20 million people between 1924 and 1953. The total killed under all communist regimes (so far) is estimated at 100 million.
The poll also found that capitalism, which offers millennials more opportunities than the socialism and communism so many of them admire, is viewed favorably by 42 percent of young people, compared to 64 percent of Americans over the age of 65. That so few older adults appreciate capitalism is also disturbing, though it is a triumph of liberal propaganda, which tends to base its ideology on intentions and feelings, not evidence and outcomes.
In part, these results are a product of a public education system that increasingly treats all ideas and organizing principles -- save democracy and capitalism -- as equal. Moral judgments are not to be made, thanks in part to an emerging philosophy divorced from right and wrong.
The late Catholic Archbishop Fulton J. Sheen brilliantly summed up the problem with modern society more than a half-century ago; before it evolved into the morally chaotic nation we are today. He wrote, "America, it is said, is suffering from intolerance -- it is not. It is suffering from tolerance. Tolerance of right and wrong, truth and error, virtue and evil, Christ and chaos. Our country is not nearly so overrun with the bigoted as it is overrun with the broadminded."
When one has lost a standard for judging right from wrong, good from evil, when anything goes (Cole Porter wrote a satirical song with that title), then socialism and communism become one more organizing principle among many of equal value.
That liberal Democrats are succeeding in shaping young people's minds is revealed by this finding in the YouGov poll: More than half of millennials say the capitalism system works against them, while four in 10 call for a "complete change" so that the highest earners pay their "fair share" in taxes.
No one ever defines what "fair share" means, much less holds government accountable for the money it wastes, including the failure of costly programs Congress lacks the will to terminate.
This way of thinking is a triumph of the envy-greed-entitlement worldview, which believes that if someone is making more money than you, they owe you the difference, except those higher taxes won't find their way into your pocket.
We used to learn from the successful, because they served as role models and examples of how hard work and risk-taking could improve any life. Now, we penalize success and, as a result, get less of it. But we feel better and feelings are all that matter, right? At least that's how we have been conditioned to think.
These poll results ought to spur more parents to rescue their children from an education system that is failing them on many levels. Maybe a field trip to a communist country would cure millennials of their moral equivalence. They might start by visiting the prisons in Cuba.

FLASHBACK: Hillary Didn't Accept The Results Of The 2000 Election ^ | 10/20/16 | by Staff 

With talk of a "rigged" system as a centerpiece of Donald Trump's presidential campaign, many have begun to ask whether or not he'll accept the election results on November 8th. While some on the left are complaining that questioning the legitimacy of a presidential election is unprecedented, it wasn't long ago that many of them were doing just that--including Hillary Clinton herself!
In October of 2002, during a heated midterm election, then-New York Senator Hillary Clinton declared that President George W. Bush had been "selected" and not "elected" in 2000.
(Excerpt) Read more at ...

The Trillion-Dollar Question ^ | October 20, 2016 | Veronique de Rugy 

Have you noticed that for a few months, President Barack Obama has stopped bragging about how the federal budget deficit is shrinking? That's because it's not. For the first time since 2009, the deficit has gone up rather than down.
The Congressional Budget Office recently released its budget review for September 2016. It shows that in fiscal 2016, which ended Sept. 30, the deficit grew by $149 billion, from $439 billion to $588 billion. It now stands at 3.2 percent of gross domestic product, up from 2.5 percent last year. It's also the first increase in the deficit as a share of GDP since 2009.
This year's deficit growth has nothing to do with a loss in revenue. Almost all of the $149 billion added to the deficit came from additional spending. The estimated spending increase was $168 billion, and the estimated revenue increase was $19 billion. The CBO notes that $41 billion of that spending was the result of payments that should have been made in fiscal 2017 but weren't because Oct. 1 fell on a weekend. That being said, CBO adds, it did not make much difference. "If not for that shift, the deficit in 2016 would have been about $547 billion, or 3.0 percent of GDP -- still considerably higher than the deficit recorded for 2015."
Putting the deficit figure in perspective is interesting. A $588 billion deficit is more than we spend on the Department of Defense for the year ($564 billion, excluding war funding) and only slightly less than we spend on health care for non-poor Americans' Medicare ($595 billion). If you add Social Security and Medicaid to the Medicare amount, we spent $1.87 trillion on the three largest mandatory programs, which explains why I always stress that these programs drive our future debt.
We are steadily heading back toward a trillion-dollar deficit. CBO projects a deficit of $954 billion by 2022, assuming Congress sticks to the current law and maintains the budget caps, which are supposed to make their comeback in fiscal 2018. But unlike the trillion-dollar deficits we experienced during the Great Recession, this red ink is here to stay -- and grow. Of course, the fact that the economy will keep growing at a meek, though steady, 1.9 percent per year will contribute to these worrying trends.
Why should we care? First, these numbers show that the government is constantly growing and expanding its size and scope, a move that will lead to future tax increases or slower economic growth. Second, having higher deficits also means having higher public debt. Federal debt is already high relative to its historical levels. But if current policies remain in effect, the debt held by the public will grow from almost 77 percent of GDP at the end of this year to 150 percent by 2046.
In the long term, if unaddressed, it will have a damaging impact on American families. Higher sustained debt also makes it harder for the government to respond to real emergencies, such as natural disasters and acts of terrorism.
It's frustrating because we know exactly what needs to be done to get off this unsustainable cycle of spending, larger deficits and higher debt levels. Behind the trend is the rising spending on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and net interest. These programs account for a large share of past deficits and will account for an even larger share of future ones. The only solution as such is to reform these programs.
Some will tell you that no reform can be achieved without significant tax increases. However, there are serious side effects from raising taxes in terms of labor productivity and economic growth. It's also very questionable whether Uncle Sam could raise much more revenue with higher tax rates under the current system.
The bottom line is that we have a spending problem that should be addressed by reforming these programs. The good news is that over the years, scholars in different institutions have come up with many plans on how to do just that; the solution is already out there. The bad news is that we're in this situation because of a lack of political power to get us off a path that leads to financial chaos. How we change those dynamics is the trillion-dollar question.

Pentagon: Hillary Should Be Arrested For Leaking Top Secret Nuclear Intelligence! ^ | October 20, 2016 | 

Hillary Clinton divulged Top Secret nuclear security intelligence to tens of millions of worldwide television audience viewers Wednesday night during the third presidential debate, according to high-ranking Department of Defense personnel.
Clinton, responding to opponent Donald Trump and a question posed by debate moderator Chris Wallace, boasted specific and “damaging” details about the United States’ nuclear response time to retaliate during a nuclear attack. Clinton said:
“But here’s the deal. The bottom line on nuclear weapons is that when the president gives the order, it must be followed. There’s about four minutes between the order being given and the people responsible for launching nuclear weapons to do so.” –Hillary Clinton, National TV Appearance
“Secretary Clinton proved tonight she is unfit to be commander-in-chief,” a top-ranking DOD intelligence source said. “What she did compromises our national security. She is cavalier and reckless and in my opinion should be detained and questioned so we can unravel why she did what she did.”
According to Pentagon sources, the information Clinton disseminated publicly is Top Secret intelligence governed under the U.S. Special Access Program (SAP) which dictates safeguards and protocols for accessing and discussing highly classified and Top Secret intelligence. The specific details of the country’s nuclear response time discussed by Clinton, sources said, are only known by a handful of individuals outside top military brass, including the following “need-to-know” (NTK) officials:
President Vice President Secretary of State Secretary of Defense Secretary of Homeland Security Attorney General Director of National Intelligence CIA Director Deputy Secretary of State Deputy Secretary of Defense Special personnel designated solely by the President in writing
Sources said late Wednesday Clinton likely violated two different types of Dept. of Defense SAP protocols. Since nuclear response is part of the sensitive national plan for nuclear war operations, all of its schematics are covered under both “Intelligence SAPs” and “Operation and Support SAPs,” sources said. Both contain Top Secret information.
“Targeting options by ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missiles), air or sea, launch order, launch procedures and response are some of the most secretly guarded tenets of national security and nuclear war policy,” a Pentagon source said. “It’s truly incredible that (nuclear) response time as part of an ERO (Emergency Response Option) is now out there in the public domain to our adversaries.”
U.S. Defense sources said according to developed U.S. counterintelligence, military officials in China, North Korea, Syria, Russia, Iran and even actors like ISIS had no previous definitive intelligence to determine the U.S.’s nuclear response time, especially during an ERO, prior to Clinton’s admission Wednesday night. Sources reluctantly acknowledged her calculations were accurate.
“Any time frame calculated would have merely been an educated hypothesis, absent leaked documents and there have been no such breaches,” the DOD source said.
Clinton has come under fire time and time again for mishandling national security secrets via email, telephone and secure facsimile during and after her tenure as secretary of state. Her mishandling of classified and top secret intelligence sparked a year-long investigation by the FBI and various Congressional committees which continue to examine Clinton’s lackluster security controls with and attitude toward protecting some of the nation’s most sensitive data which she stored on an unprotected home server in the basement of her Chappaqua, New York home during her post at Foggy Bottom.
Clinton, just this week, unleashed a series of campaign ads painting Trump as a loose cannon who should never be in control of nuclear secrets and weapons. Clinton trumpeted the seemingly ill-timed ads Wednesday night at the debate prior to her rant divulging nuclear secrets herself.
Hillary Divulges Nuclear Intelligence

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