When I first took a look at the picture for the U.S. Senate, I saw fourteen exciting-to-mildly interesting Democrat-held seats and three Republican-held ones. Since December, it has been clear Senator Collins has no intention of retiring, so with that possibility axed, the number of seats on the GOP worth watching drops to two. Senator Tom Coburn announced his retirement, and the special election to fill his seat will be held concurrently with the scheduled midterm election. His seat is quite safe, so the primary will be where all of the action lies.
Bigger than the retirement or our removal of Collins from my watch list has
been the developments in the Democrat-held states. With polling releases and a
closer examination of the Gallup surveys (along with available exit poll data
from ’08, ’10, and ’12), I am moving several vulnerable Democrats to the
endangered list: Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Kay Hagan of North Carolina are
now projected to lose their seats by a close margin. In addition, Republican
Terri Lynn Land, for now, appears to have the edge in Michigan, with
fund-raising figures and polling strongly suggesting this race to be the best
for Republicans in the Midwest. Despite a lack of polling, further review of the
election data in 2008 along with fund-raising figures have convinced me to push
Mark Begich onto the very vulnerable list: Alaska is now a toss-up. Right now,
the Republicans are projected a net gain of seven seats, enough for a 52-48
majority in the Senate if Begich manages to hold on.
(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...
