The left-leaning New York Times
which actually does a fairly credible job on election analysis has 46 senate
seats rated as safe, continuing or leaning GOP and and equal number for the
Jackass party.
They say control of the senate will come down to results in eight toss-up
states which I, in turn, are ranking in order of likelihood of a GOP win as
follows:
Further, I also predict the GOP loses Hawaii even with a great candidate in former governor Linda Lingle, given the abject stupidity of that electorate. Frankly, I think we have a better chance to flip Pennsylvania.
People also may think I am ranking Montana too low, given the conservative nature of the state. However, the incumbent Tester, has taken great pains to distance himself from the national party and is outspokenly pro-gun. The only reason the race is even competitive is because he is running against a high profile Republican.
Note that while the New York Times has updated their state-by-state presidential analysis quite recently, the U.S. Senate analysis hasn't been updated since April.
- Missouri
- Wisconsin
- Nevada
- Massachusetts
- Montana
- Virginia
- Maine
- Hawaii
Further, I also predict the GOP loses Hawaii even with a great candidate in former governor Linda Lingle, given the abject stupidity of that electorate. Frankly, I think we have a better chance to flip Pennsylvania.
People also may think I am ranking Montana too low, given the conservative nature of the state. However, the incumbent Tester, has taken great pains to distance himself from the national party and is outspokenly pro-gun. The only reason the race is even competitive is because he is running against a high profile Republican.
Note that while the New York Times has updated their state-by-state presidential analysis quite recently, the U.S. Senate analysis hasn't been updated since April.
