Sunday, May 27, 2012

Does the GOP's Demographic Death Spiral End in a Texas Graveyard?


The New American ^ | May 22, 2012 | Selwyn Duke



If Democratic voters were rapidly increasing in number and Republican voters rapidly decreasing, it should be pretty big news, shouldn’t it?

Not when at issue is a third rail of American social commentary: race.

Recently I wrote a piece on race and voting patterns, using as a lede the story about how white births now account for less than 50 percent of the U.S. total for the first time in history. And while most respondents agreed with my analysis, some reacted predictably: Uncomfortable even hearing about race and/or frightened by what lies ahead, they rationalized away obvious facts.

And here is one: You cannot understand where our nation is headed ideologically without grasping the link between racial identification and voting patterns — and demographic changes that will yield Democratic hegemony.
...
Republicans derive 90 percent of their presidential-election vote from whites. Democrats win the non-white vote by, on average, more than 70 percent.
Here is another “what”: One of these constituencies is shrinking, and the other is growing — rapidly.
...
So consider the two major parties’ electoral starting point. Every election now, Republicans have to spot the Democrats Calif. and N.Y. and their combined 84 electoral votes. Adding the votes of reliably Democrat Mass., Hawaii, Vt. and D.C. — and we can include Ill. in there now — brings the total to 125. And I’m being generous: A few more states probably belong in that guaranteed-Dem. column.
Yet it gets worse. If you look at the electoral map, states reliably or likely for Mitt Romney account for only 170 electoral votes while states reliably or likely for Barack Obama account for 243.
Only 270 are needed to win...
(Excerpt) Read more at thenewamerican.com ...

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