More Democrats are casting their ballots early but the lead may not hold.
The Democrats' early lead in early voting in battleground states is a strong indication that Hillary Clinton will become the nation's 45th president. Unless it isn't.
Early voting has begun in 37 states and the District of Columbia (three of those states have an all-mail election) and tabulations so far show that there are more ballots delivered or returned by registered Democrats than Republicans in key states. That's good news for the Clinton campaign, but not necessary definitive, experts say, since the early numbers are as much an indicator of the kind of person who votes early, as opposed to how much statewide support each contender has.
In North Carolina, for example, Republicans started out with an early advantage with the mail-in vote. That's not surprising, election experts say, since Republican early voters are more likely than their Democratic counterparts to mail it in, instead of showing up at a polling place with an early ballot in hand. Once in-person early voting started last Thursday, Democrats took a commanding lead, jumping to a 14 percentage-point lead over Republicans, according to an analysis by University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, who heads the United States Election Project.
That sounds like an optimistic turn for Democrats – until one looks at the 2012 numbers, when Democrats out-numbered Republicans strongly in early voting but the Tar Heel State went to GOP nominee Mitt Romney anyway.
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