Trump or Clinton? Why CafePress' sales might be the most accurate presidential poll

The Louisville Business Journal ^ | September 2, 2016 | Baylee Pulliam 
Posted on 9/2/2016, 11:56:39 PM by 2ndDivisionVet
Which presidential candidate is leading in the polls — Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
That depends on what poll you're looking at, and some of them are likely more accurate than others. But while most rely on simply asking people which candidate they prefer, CafePress Inc. CEO Fred Durham says it might be better to look at people who vote with their dollar.
"That's the energized vote bank that's going to show up on Election Day," he said. "That's the most passionate part of the population."
The Louisville-based internet retailer sells loads of political gear on its website, and keeps track of which candidate's stuff is selling more. It's sort of like a poll, but Durham said the numbers are more accurate. Not everyone who responds to a traditional poll will actually vote on Election Day, but CafePress customers probably will.
"They're all going to the polls," he said. "You buy stuff, you're actually going to vote."
Plus, it takes a certain amount of passion to make someone willing to brand themselves with their political ideology — and those ideologies are well, let's just say bold. Go to the politics section of CafePress' online store, and you'll see everything from far left, to far right, to fed up with all of it.
Most of that is actually designed by users — another reason Durham said the retailer's polls are so accurate. And it's probably why the company's been able to predict the outcome of every presidential election since it was founded in 1999.
Some gear sold by CafePress is for candidates (" Hillary for President") and some are against (" Hillary for Prison"), which Durham said gives the company even more insight into what people will do at the polls.
For example, the company can tell if you're backing republican nominee Donald Trump because you genuinely like him, or just because you don't like Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton. And vice versa, of course.
"You get a sense of not only how people vote, but why," he said.
And since they have such a wide customer base, the sales figures are a pretty good cross-section of voters — "we are America," he said.
As for the outcome of this election, we'll find out for sure come November. But if we follow CafePress' sales so far this year, Trump is winning by a little more than 20 percent.
So far this year, Clinton-bashing merchandise sales have been a whopping 814.88 percent higher than that for anti-Trump merchandise.