Sunday, February 7, 2016

Fun with numbers: The real story behind the 4.9% unemployment report

American Thinker ^ | 02/06/2016 | Rick Moran 


On the surface, the January jobs numbers appear to be "not bad."  There were 151,000 jobs created, and the official unemployment rate dropped below 5%.

But the story inside the numbers is really, really awful.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates job creation and loss using two different measurements: the Current Population Survey and "Establishment" data from the Current Employment Statistics.  Usually, the two measurements are roughly the same. 
But how do you explain this, BLS?

Consider these BLS numbers based on household data. In January, there were 25,328,000 "foreign born" workers employed, a one-month drop of 98,000.

In January, there were 123,710,000 "native born" men and women employed, a one-month drop of 567,000.

Analysts note that there are several ways to count jobs created and lost but the losses shown among men and women, foreign born and immigrants, is significant, said a congressional expert, who told Secrets, "Maybe big thing this month is just the decline in number of native born workers drops over half million in a month?"

That means that the actual number of jobs created was about 650,000.  What kind of jobs were they?  Zero Hedge Blog refers to the "Waiter and Bartender Recovery" – an apt way to describe the fact that 70% of those jobs are minimum-wage positions.

Marketwatch thinks the numbers are "fishy":

Manufacturing mojo?

By virtually all accounts, U.S. manufacturers are struggling to grow amid a decline in exports and a big drop in demand among energy producers. Yet the industry supposedly added 29,000 new jobs in January to mark the biggest gain in 14 months.

Believable? Many economists are skeptical. And even if the job increases are real, some predict hiring will slow again next month.


(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...

T-Shirt