It's time to get serious about investing again. In that spirit, here are my predictions for the economy, the markets, interest rates, and politics in 2016.
This year, I'm stepping back from my long-term optimism about U.S. stocks and calling for the end of the bull market, although I doubt it will be accompanied by a recession and financial crisis. So, here goes:
1. No U.S. recession, and the economy muddles along: Solid housing and automotive sales should help the U.S. economy post 2%+ GDP growth, but not more. A strong dollar will continue to hurt exports, and weak global markets will keep U.S. growth subdued.
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5. The Republican presidential and vice-presidential nominees will be Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz: It's the obvious ticket, since each is leading in the polls and is strong among different constituencies. Cruz attracts Evangelical Christians and Tea Party sympathizers, while Trump draws angry, disaffected white working- and middle-class Republicans and even some Democrats who yearn for a "strong leader"
Proportional assignment of delegates in the early primaries and caucuses will prevent any candidate from locking up the nomination early. But it may well weed out the also-rans, including former Gov. Jeb Bush and even Sen. Marco Rubio, whose campaign can't seem to sweat the details. That would be a blow to the Republican Establishment, hedge-fund donors, neocons and the mainstream media.
I think the fix is in. Trump and Cruz are handling each other with kid gloves. Would Sen. Cruz agree to play second fiddle to alpha-male Trump? In less time than it takes to say, "Yes, sir."
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
