Betting and prediction markets say that Marco Rubio is most likely to be the Republican nominee. There. Now how much are you willing to put down on Marco's candicacy? I personally will have to look into some of these markets to see if there is a way to short them.
One broad measure of the betting markets puts Mr. Rubio’s chances at 34 percent versus Mr. Bush’s at 23 percent.It’s official: Jeb Bush is no longer the leading contender to become the Republican candidate for president. Instead, prediction markets now rate Marco Rubio as far more likely to get the nod.
Traders at Betfair, which is the world’s largest betting exchange, but which doesn’t take bets from Americans, rate Mr. Bush a 20 percentchance to win the nomination, while Mr. Rubio is given a 29 percentchance. Over at PredictIt... traders have moved more decisively, giving Mr. Bush a 24 percent chance, compared with Mr. Rubio’s 40 percent.
The outsiders Donald Trump and Ben Carson continue to dominate the polls, each well above 20 percent in national polls, while typically neither Mr. Rubio nor Mr. Bush registers double-digit support.
Yet prediction markets see neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Carson as likely to win the nomination. Mr. Trump is rated around a one-in-six chance to win, with Mr. Carson’s chances at about half that.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
