It's never easy to predict how any presidential term will play out; very few could have anticipated the 9/11 attacks or the Iraq War after George W. Bush won in 2000 or the lingering effects of the Great Recession after Barack Obama won in 2008. Yet the recent and meteoric rise of Donald Trump to the top of the GOP polls begs an interesting question: what if the billionaire real estate mogul actually wins the White House in 2016?
As of July 2015, it is hard to nail down precisely what Trump's economic, social and foreign policies are. Trump is big on broad ideas and generic solutions, but his speeches and writings aren't filled with specific proposals. There are some older proposals from his Reform Primary challenge for the presidency in 2000. Combined with his recent speeches and TV appearances, there is enough to forge a vague picture of a future led by President Trump.
Trump shares some obvious platforms with all of the Republican candidates for 2016: End Obamacare, reform the welfare state, reduce taxes and (with the exception of Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky) a more hawkish stance on foreign policy.
An End to Free Trade
Perhaps no single proposal by Donald Trump is as striking and antiquated as his strategy to keep American jobs from being "taken away" by foreign countries, such as Mexico and China.Trump doesn't consider international trade to be a win-win proposition as do most modern economists. Instead, Trump believes that trade wars have clear winners and losers, and that currencies and trade restrictions must be used to ensure victory.
At various times throughout his campaign, Trump has pledged to put in place a 20% tariff on all imported goods. He told an audience that he would have told the CEO of Ford Motor Co. that he would have the government impose a 35% tariff on all Ford products if a Ford motor plant was shut down in Detroit and moved to Mexico. He has said that he would even impose a Chinese-specific tariff to offset the effects of Chinese currency manipulation.
Five-Point Tax Plan
One carryover from Trump's 2000 presidential platform is his five-point tax plan. The plan in 2015 is slightly modified to account for inflation and larger government debt, but otherwise, it is very similar.1) Trump wants a repeal of the U.S. death tax, or what the IRS refers to as the estate tax. Trump cites a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study that suggests that some 1.5 million new jobs aren't created because of the tax on large wealth transfers to non-spouse heirs. As of 2015, the estate tax applies to estates larger than $5.43 million.
2) President Trump would also seek to reduce taxes on capital gains and dividends; "capitalism requires capital," as Trump noted in a speech.
3) He wants corporate taxes set at zero to encourage American companies to stay and hire domestically, creating jobs at home.
4) Along with his 20% tariff on imported goods, Trump also wants to impose an additional 20% tax on companies that hire foreign workers.
5) The fifth part of the five-point plan is a simplified tax code with the following brackets:
- 1% tax on the first $30,000 in income,
- 5% tax on all income between $30,000 and $100,000,
- 10% tax on all income between $100,000 and;
- $1 million, and a 15% rate on all income above $1 million.
Foreign Policy
Trump projects a hardline stance on illegal immigration, turmoil in the Middle East, and negotiations with China, Russia and Iran.President Trump would push to build a physical wall on the border with Mexico. He proposed sending Exxon Mobil to Iraq to "take back the oil" to starve ISIS. However, he refuses to say whether he'd commit more American troops overseas.
