Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Another significant paper finds low climate sensitivity to CO2, suggesting no global warming crisis!

Watts Up with That ^ | October 14, 2014 | By Anthony Watts 

Hot on the heels of the Lewis and Curry paper, we have this new paper, which looks to be well researched, empirically based, and a potential blockbuster for dimming the alarmism that has been so prevalent over climate sensitivity. With a climate sensitivity of just 0.43°C, it takes the air out of the alarmism balloon.
The Hockey Schtick writes: A new paper published in the Open Journal of Atmospheric and Climate Change by renowned professor of physics and expert on spectroscopy Dr. Hermann Harde finds that climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 levels is only about [0.6C], about 7 times less than the IPCC claims, but in line with many other published low estimates of climate sensitivity.
The paper further establishes that climate sensitivity to tiny changes in solar activity is comparable to that of CO2 and by no means insignificant as the IPCC prefers to claim. . .
(Excerpt) Read more at wattsupwiththat.com ...

City of Houston subpoenas pastors' sermons to see if they're criticizing lesbian mayor!

Cain TV.com ^ | October 14, 2014 | Dan Calabrese 


Unreal.
We already told you earlier today that folks are willing to use the gay rights movement as a pretext to go after those who live by the Word of God. Then we were talking about some lunkhead at a Canadian tourism company. I bet you didn't think the attorneys for a major American city would ever try to subpoena pastors' sermons to see if they had dared to speak any criticisms of the city's lesbian mayor.
Well. They did. Houston, we have . . . yeah, OK, it's an overused cliche. But if it ever applied, it would be here:
Houston's embattled equal rights ordinance took another legal turn this week when it surfaced that city attorneys, in an unusual step, subpoenaed sermons given by local pastors who oppose the law and are tied to the conservative Christian activists that have sued the city.
Opponents of the equal rights ordinance are hoping to force a repeal referendum when they get their day in court in January, claiming City Attorney David Feldman wrongly determined they had not gathered enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. City attorneys issued subpoenas last month during the case's discovery phase, seeking, among other communications, "all speeches, presentations, or sermons related to HERO, the Petition, Mayor Annise Parker, homosexuality, or gender identity prepared by, delivered by, revised by, or approved by you or in your possession."
The subpoenas were issued to several high-profile pastors and religious leaders who have been vocal in opposing the ordinance. The Alliance Defending Freedom has filed a motion on behalf of the pastors seeking to quash the subpoenas.
The back story is that in June the Houston City Council passed, and Mayor Parker signed, a "human rights ordinance" that panders in numerous ways to activists pushing for gay and "gender identity" rights, including a requirement that men be allowed to use women's bathrooms and vice versa. Not surprisingly, many local pastors opposed the ordinance, and more than 17,000 residents filed referendum petitions to get it repealed - which the city blatantly threw out alleging "irregularities".
But lest you thought Houston politicians were done playing hardball with their critics, not a chance. The subpoenas are supposedly to see if pastors had in any way violated the law by using the pulpit to preach about the law. Aside from the obvious First Amendment problems here, the pastors weren't even involved with the petition drive, so the city had no basis for issuing them subpoenas.
Not that this would stop them. The secular cultural left smells blood when it comes to gay rights, and they think they are now free to take any action - no matter how unconstitutional or illegal - against those who oppose the gay agenda because the cultural winds are blowing in their direction.
Big picture: If a city can subpoena a pastor's sermons just because the pastor preaches from the book that includes 1 Corinthians 6:9-10 and other passages that call homosexuality sin, then we no longer have freedom of religion. At all. Period. Any pastor at any time could find himself in legal jeopardy if he preaches something not in agreement with the political, social or cultural orthodoxy of the moment.
It's a mistake to think the left has no god. They do. Their god is government, and specifically their own attainment of government power to use in shaping America's economic, social, cultural and political institutions to their liking. Those who preach the Gospel of Jesus Christ threaten the left's god, so no method of taking them down is off the table.
It's not just Houston that has a problem

What an Election Night Republican win would look like!

538.com ^ | October 13, 2014 | Harry Enten 

FiveThirtyEight’s latest Senate forecast gives Democrats a 40 percent chance of maintaining control of the Senate. Still, you’ve probably heard that control might not be known until December (when Louisiana would hold a runoff election) or January (when a Georgia runoff would take place and when Kansas independent Greg Orman, should he win, would have to decide which party to caucus with).
But polling released over the past few days makes clear the most likely path the GOP would have to walk to win a majority Nov. 4 (or the early hours of Nov. 5).
Republicans need to pick up six seats. Let’s leave aside Louisiana, Georgia and Kansas for a moment.
The GOP has a 99 and 97 percent chance of taking back Montana and West Virginia, respectively. That’s two. My colleague Nate Silver wrote last week about South Dakota, where the three-way Senate race was starting to get crazy. A new Harper Polling survey put Republican Mike Rounds up 37 percent to Democrat Rick Weiland’s 33 percent to independent Larry Pressler’s 23 percent. Rounds has never trailed in a poll, and last week’s SurveyUSA survey had Pressler ahead of Weiland. If the anti-Rounds vote continues to split, it’ll be difficult for Rounds to lose. The FiveThirtyEight model still has him with an 87 percent chance of winning.
Those three look fairly solid (though South Dakota is less clear than the others).
Republicans have a 78 chance in Alaska (where a new Hickman Analytics poll put Republican Dan Sullivan up 5 percentage points) and a 74 percent chance of winning Arkansas.
Those two are far less certain, but let’s give them to the GOP. That’s five.
Both Colorado and Iowa appear to be tilting right. Our latest forecast gives the GOP a little under a 65 percent chance in both states.
In Colorado, Republican Cory Gardner has led in seven of the nine independent polls conducted over the past month. On Monday, SurveyUSA released two polls using two different sampling techniques — random digit dialing and registered-based sampling — that showed Gardner up 2 and 4 percentage points, respectively. Its prior poll in the Centennial State had Democratic Sen. Mark Udall up by 4 percentage points. Even if you think the polls are underestimating Udall’s strength because of a strong ground game, it’s hard to deny the trend in Gardner’s direction.
In Iowa, much was made over the weekend of a Des Moines Register survey showing Republican Joni Ernst’s lead dropping to from 6 percentage point, to 1 point, compared to the Register’s previous poll in mid-September. But that prior survey was an outlier. Since the Register’s mid-September survey, Ernst has led by an average of 1.6 percentage points, which matches the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. Ernst has led by a percentage point or more in five of the past eight non-sponsored surveys (including a new Rasmussen Reports poll putting her up 3 points) and only trailed by a point or more in one.
Give Republicans both Iowa and Colorado for the moment. The GOP has gained seven seats. They only need six, but to be guaranteed a Senate majority, we need to be sure Democrats won’t sweep our potential late deciders: Kansas, Georgia and Louisiana. (It’s very unlikely Republicans would win Iowa and Colorado but lose ruby-red states like Kansas and Louisiana, but still.)
So the GOP needs to win one of the three late deciders on election night.
Lousiana is very likely to go to a runoff, in which Republican Bill Cassidy has a 74 percent chance of winning. So an instant-gratification GOP Senate majority will probably require winning in either Kansas or Georgia.
The FiveThirtyEight model currently projects Republican David Perdue to win 50.0 percent of the vote in Georgia. Perdue, who has a 72 percent chance of winning, may not avoid a runoff because of Libertarian Amanda Swafford, as I’ve written about.
In Kansas, Republican Sen. Pat Roberts faces a strong challenge from Orman. Orman, though, may have peaked too soon. Roberts recorded his first lead in two polls released last week, and a new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey puts Orman only up 3 percentage points. That’s down from a 10 percentage-point lead in PPP’s two prior polls. FiveThirtyEight still gives Orman a 58 percent chance of winning, but the race appears to be trending back toward the fundamentals (i.e. Kansas is a red state), and the GOP has a large advertisement advantage heading into the final few weeks of the campaign.
The most likely scenario in which we know Nov. 5 that Republicans will control the next Senate requires a GOP sweep of Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado and Iowa, and then a win in either Kansas or Georgia.
That path might be relatively clear. But it’s also relatively unlikely.

MY Congressman

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A Slave!

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Another "blue dress"

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Support

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Taxes

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Sending Joe!

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Seems amazing!

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Caused by a video!

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The Cover-up Team!

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Spend it on Vets!

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Another one!

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WHY?

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Meet the Ebola's!

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Every single one!

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America's Downfall

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If he was WHITE!

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If you voted for Obama...

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We're paying for it!

No Thanks!

Every once in a while...

Released

OBAMA

Sharpton