Anatomy of a Democratic Midterm Freakout (Dem panties in a twist)

THE WIRE ^ | 3/17/14 | Philip Bump
National Democrats are in a near panic — with a "poisonous" president unable to use his popularity to sway voters, a "screaming siren" warning about mid-term turnout, and Republicans on the offensive on Obamacare. 1. The midterms were always going to be bad for Democrats because of turnout. Republican David Jolly won the special election in Florida last week was that turnout was very, very low. Obama advisor David Plouffe didn't mince words. "We have a turnout issue," he said. "This is a screaming siren that the same problems that afflicted us [in 2010] could happen again." In 2010 — Democrats lost 63 seats. "No prominent Democrats predict their party will win back the House," The New York Times drily notes. 2. President Obama is near all-time lows on his approval ratings. "One Democratic lawmaker, who asked not to be identified, said Mr. Obama was becoming 'poisonous' to the party’s candidates." .... being tied to an unpopular president can be an anchor. Democrats are eager to get Obama's vaunted-but-diminished voter engagement apparatus involved in their races, but Mr. Obama is welcome to remain in Washington, thank you very much. 3. Republicans have figured out how to walk the line on Obamacare. In the wake of Jolly's win last week, Republicans clearly feel emboldened to return to thr attack on Obamacare......which GOP Chair Reince Priebus called "complete poison out there." Reuters reports a Democratic pollster sent out a memo after last week's race, explaining that "'keeping parts' of the Affordable Care Act that work and 'fixing those that don't' drew higher numbers than 'the Republican message of repeal.'" House Republicans have shifted toward a package of fixes. The Washington Post's Robert Costa describes the proposal as a sort of greatest hits of Republicans' 50 or so reform proposals. It's important to note that in order to rebut the Democrats on the campaign trail, Republicans only need an alternative in-hand, not necessarily for anything to pass. 4. Outside Republican groups are outspending their opposition. Jolly and the Republicans were outspent 3-1 by his loser Democratic rival and her allies in Florida, that's not the case nationally. The Times reports that "Republican groups have spent about $40 million in this election cycle, compared with just $17 million by Democrats" — largely focused on a repeal of Obamacare. 5. Republicans are expanding the number of races where they want to compete. Democrats money will need to be spent in places they would rather not have to. Onetime Massachusetts senator Scott Brown entered the NH Senate race, forcing the DNC to spend money in a year when they're already desperate to hold existing seats. 6. Democrats freaking out will only make all of the above problems worse. Washington Post columnist E. J. Dionne despairs, "Listlessness is bad politics. Defensiveness is poor strategy. And resignation is never inspiring." Obama and his party are in danger of allowing the Republicans to set the terms of the 2014 elections, just as they did four years ago. The fog of nasty and depressing advertising threatens to reduce the electorate to a hard core of older, conservative voters eager to hand the president a blistering defeat. Dionne's message is that Democrats need to change their attitude, and quickly. Which, of course, is like telling someone suffering from depression to get over it. The problem runs a little deeper than that.