Friday, December 27, 2013

2014: Democrats’ Disaster?

National Review ^ | December 27, 2013 | John Fund 

If a panic button existed in the offices of vulnerable Democrats in Congress right now, they might be pressing it so often it wouldn’t have time to reset.
A new CNN poll this week found that support for Obamacare is down to an all-time low of 35 percent. That helps explain the dramatic partisan reversal in another question CNN asked — about which party respondents would vote for in their congressional district. Two months ago, Democrats had a 50–42 percent lead on that critical “generic ballot” question. Now, Republicans have taken a 49–44 lead. Other private polls taken in the last few days confirm the trend of the CNN poll.
[snip]
What worries Democrats the most is that their base voters will be unenthusiastic about voting in a year when President Obama isn’t himself on the ballot. The CNN poll has some evidence backing up that fear. It finds that only 22 percent of Democrats are currently extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. At the same time, 36 percent of Republicans can’t wait to find a polling booth and register their discontent.
President Obama is, as of now, a drag on Democratic candidates. A full 55 percent of adults say they are more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who opposes Obama than for one who backs his program.
Numbers like that can have a real impact in swing states. Take Colorado, which was a key to Obama’s victory in 2012 when he won it with 51.5 percent of the vote. But this month’s Quinnipiac poll found Obama’s approval in the state at just 36 percent. That has helped make Democratic senator Mark Udall’s seat competitive. His “deserves re-election” number has tumbled down to 41 percent, with 47 percent now saying he doesn’t deserve a second term.....
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...

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