Saturday, November 3, 2012

Six Reasons for Final Weekend Optimism


By Guy Benson

You already know all the supposed reasons conservatives should feel downtrodden heading into Tuesday: The Obama campaign's balleyhooed turnout machine, heavily Democratic state polls in places like Ohio, Nate Silver's electoral model, and the overwhelming conventional wisdom in the media all suggest the president will limp over the finish line on Tuesday and secure four more years. I've already written about why I think the race will ultimately hinge on turnout and enthusiasm, both of which could break either way in three days. But while liberals attempt to sow seeds of despair -- perhaps in an act of Freudian projection -- ahead of the election, many conservatives haven't gotten the memo. As you gear up for the final 72 hour push of this crucial contest, here are some causes for optimism moving forward:

(1) Peerless human political encyclopedia Michael Barone believes Mitt Romney will win. Like Karl Rove -- who also picked Obama to prevail in 2008, incidentally -- Barone thinks Romney is at least in position to shock the world with a decisive victory:

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president. But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick. Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney. That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so. That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada....Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

Barone even slides Pennsylvania into Romney's column, which he concedes is going out on a limb. I still think it's a bit of a stretch, but based on the demographics and trends in the state, who knows?
(2) Jay Cost, an extremely savvy analyst of polling and election data, believes Romney is "likely to win." Here's why:

I think Mitt Romney is likely to win next Tuesday. For two reasons: (1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again. (2) Romney leads among independents. Again, this is a different approach than the poll mavens will offer. They are taking data at face value, running simulations off it, and generating probability estimates. That is not what this is, and it should not be interpreted as such. I am not willing to take polls at face value anymore. I am more interested in connecting the polls to history and the long-run structure of American politics, and when I do that I see a Romney victory.

(3) The Washington Post has updated its Congressional projections, now calling for House Republicans to roughly maintain their current majority margin in the next Congress -- if not expand on it. Ed Morrissey makes a good point: If it took an evenly-split electorate (in terms of party ID) to build the 2010 red wave that swept Republicans back into a substantial House majority, how could they possibly hold or enlarge their advantage if 2012's electorate will be significantly more Democratic, as many pollster are assuming?
(4) WaPo also reports that their national polling indicates at least 13 percent of 2008 Obama voters are defecting to Romney this year. Ace runs some quick-and-dirty, back of the envelope calculations:

So, ultimately, somewhere between 13 and 16% will defect from Obama to Romney. Obama won relatively big -- more than any Democratic president in recent memory -- but not so big he can afford that level of defection. 70 million voted for Obama in 2008; 60 million voted for McCain. 13% of 70 million is 9.1 million. Subtract that from 70 million and add it to 60 million and you get...

Romney leading by millions of votes, that's what. Maybe the Post's defector percentage is exaggerated, plus turnout is likely to be down this year -- but then there are the Romney voters who stayed home last time. WaPo also has Romney up comfortably with independents, yet they peg the national race at just 49/48 for Mitt overall. More sample fun. If their topline number is approximately correct, their internals are bunk, and vice versa. Again, we'll see.
(5) Yesterday I reported that Jim Geraghty's top source (code name: "Middle Cheese") says internal data shows Romney looking solid in Florida, Virginia and Colorado. But another insider I know has seemed skittish about all three states. Might this new poll out of Florida validate Middle Cheese's outlook?

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points. Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

The poll also shows Romney leading among both early voters and Floridians who will turn out on Tuesday. Game over in the Sunshine State?
(6) Finally, we keep hearing the 'turnout and enthusiasm' mantra from the commentariat. (Guilty as charged). Marist/NBC has a new survey showing Obama up by six in Ohio...with a D+9 sample. This predicts a significantly more Democratic Ohio electorate this year than in 2008, with Republicans underperforming their paltry 2008 levels. This notion is defied by several factors: Common sense, early voting indicators, and anecdotal evidence, such as the epic rally Romney held in suburban Cincinnati last night:



Local officials estimated the crowd at 30,000 people. The president drew 2,800 in Ohio yesterday. Here's full video of Ryan and Romney's speeches (for a sense of how electric things were, skip to 8:50, when Ryan introduces the man at the top of the ticket):



Yeah, maybe the Ohio electorate really is secretly D+9 this year. Or maybe it's D+2, 1, or zero. One final fact: Historically, Republican presidential candidates run ahead of their national percentage in Ohio. This was true in 2008, when Obama won by seven overall and by 4.5 in Buckeyeland. All of this is not to say that Romney's a shoo-in by any stretch. There are so many moving parts and contradictory data points that I'm not nearly bold enough to make any prediction in this one. Hell, go re-read the opening sentences of this post. Having said that, I think the smirking liberal (public) consensus that Obama's just fine is misplaced, and could be proven spectacularly wrong in a few days.

Guy Benson

Guy Benson is Townhall.com's Political Editor. Follow him on Twitter @guypbenson.

Obama's Empty Chair posted this on Facebook:


Obama s Empty Chair

Obama Refuses to Answer About Storm Victims’ Frustrations

White House Dossier ^ | November 3, 2012 | Keith Koeffler

President Obama this morning ignored a reporter’s question about the mounting frustration victims of Hurricane Sandy are having with the response to the storm, refusing to let a question from the press interrupt a FEMA photo op in which he was on display taking action.
An excerpt rom the press pool report, which starts with a quote from Obama:

“There is nothing more important than us getting this right. And we’re going to spend as much time, effort and energy as necessary to make sure all the people of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut know that the entire country is behind them in this difficult recovery effort.” 
He spoke for about five minutes. Pool asked about frustrations of people, particularly Staten Island. He did not respond.
No doubt aware of the political perils – and potential benefits – of the fallout from the hurricane, Obama arrived at FEMA with multiple members of his Cabinet in tow in a massive display of presidential concern. Even Cabinet secretaries you wouldn’t expect to be involved in hurricane relief – such as the Secretary of Labor and the Small Business Administration Administrator – have been enlisted and were at this morning’s meeting.
Obama’s effort will indeed have some practical effect – anytime a president shows he is personally engaged in an issue, it helps get the various agencies involved into a higher gear.
But with scenes of devastation proliferating on voters’ TV screens around the nation and evidence mounting of an insufficient response, Obama obviously felt he had to be seen at FEMA for a second time this week before heading back out to campaign.
After the visit to FEMA, Obama departed for Ohio.

Obama's Totalitarian 'Payback'

Tea Party Tribune ^ | 2012-11-03 15:32:35 | mrcurmudgeon


By Mr. Curmudgeon:

The freakishly weasel-like Valerie Jarrett warned Americans not voting for President Obama , "After we win this election, it's our turn. Payback time. Everyone not with us is against us and they better be ready because we don't forget. The ones who helped us will be rewarded; the ones who opposed us will get what they deserve. There is going to be hell to pay. Congress won't be a problem for us this time. No election to worry about after this is over and we have two judges ready to go."
This is what President Obama meant when he told Russian arms negotiators that once his re-election was assured, he would have "more flexibility" to disarm Marxism's longtime enemy - the American people. Jarrett means that Russia's enemies are Obama's as well. If Jarret sounds like a leather-coated member of the old Soviet Cheka, it's because political opponents are targets that must be dealt with - liquidated if necessary.
Chief among Obama's opponents is the United States Constitution. That is why, after we get what we "deserve," the Stalinist Obama regime has two justices in the wings - ready to sweep from our tattered founding document what few legal protections are afforded citizens in the "land of the free and the home of the brave."
Don't kid yourself. This is not the bare-knuckled politics practiced in Chicago. This is the unmasked monster of totalitarianism.
Jarrett's promised "payback" is why unseating this president on November 6 is so important - to relieve him of the totalitarian "flexibility" he and his cult followers so desperately crave.

The Obama Doctrine: American Lives are Expendable (This is Why Bengazi Happened and will again)

AmericanThinker ^ | November 3,2012 | Karen McQuillan

The Obama White House, the Clinton State Department, and Panetta's Department of Defense have guiding principles in Afghanistan that, if applied to Benghazi, explain the administration's decision to deny air support to the Americans fighting for their lives on 9/11/12.
The denial of air support to our troops in battle is normal operating procedure for this commander in chief. He doesn't have to give special orders to do it. It is the Obama Doctrine on the War on Terror: do not kill Muslim civilians. Let American soldiers die instead. That is how Obama thinks he will win the hearts and minds of the Islamic world.
In Afghanistan, the military is required to deny air support, even in the midst of battle, if it could possibly result in civilian casualties. Under Obama, it is required that the military sacrifice the lives of our soldiers when jihadis are firing from population areas. The Benghazi safe house where Tyrone Woods, Sean Smith, and the others were defending themselves against al-Qaeda was in a neighborhood. Therefore, if the Afghanistan rules of engagement were applied, no air support and no reinforcements would be sent.
Following the same mindset, the Clinton State Department's main diplomatic principle is to show how much we respect Muslim sensibilities. Ambassador Stevens' repeated requests to not withdraw his U.S. Marine security detail were denied by the State Department on those grounds. Just a few weeks before 9/11, Stevens was reduced to relying on local Libyan militia for his safety and the safety of his staff. He was scared for his life, and on 9/11, he gave his life. He was sacrificed to the Obama administration's diplomatic doctrine.
Under the Obama administration, the lives and safety of American diplomats and military personnel come third after respecting Muslim lives and sensibilities...
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...

FEMA OUT OF WATER, NO DELIVERY UNTIL MONDAY (Heckuva Job Barry!)

breitbard ^ | 11/3/2012 | MICHAEL PATRICK LEAHY

FEMA's vaunted "lean forward" strategy that called for advanced staging of supplies for emergency distribution failed to live up to its billing in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. In fact, the agency appears to have been completely unprepared to distribute bottled water to Hurricane Sandy victims when the storm hit this Monday. In contrast to its stated policy, FEMA failed to have any meaningful supplies of bottled water -- or any other supplies, for that matter -- stored in nearby facilities as it had proclaimed it would on its website. This was the case despite several days advance warning of the impending storm. FEMA only began to solicit bids for vendors to provide bottled water for distribution to Hurricane Sandy victims on Friday, sending out a solicitation request for 2.3 million gallons of bottled water at the FedBizOpps.gov website. Bidding closed at 4:30 pm eastern. Breitbart News spoke with contracting officer Annette Wright, who said that the winning vendor would be required to deliver the 2.3 million gallons of bottled water to an East Farmingdale, New York distribution center that was listed in the solicitation request by Monday, November 5th. Ms. Wright was unable to say when or how the water would be delivered from the distribution center to needy Hurricane Sandy victims in New Jersey, Staten Island, Long Island, and other boroughs of New York City. Vendors "are currently being evaluated," she said, and when the vendors are announced, they will provide information on how local distribution will occur.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...

Temperatures drop, tempers rise as Sandy power outages linger (Obama FAILED!)

cnn ^ | 11/3/2012 | By Faith Karimi

Survivors of Superstorm Sandy welcomed glimmers of hope as services resumed in some areas, but for those quivering in dark and unheated homes, relief was not coming fast enough.
About 2.7 million customers remained without power Saturday across 15 states and the District of Columbia. And some may be in the dark for another week, according to utility officials.
Frustrated residents, worried about plunging temperatures, said companies are not working fast enough to restore power.
"The power company sent us an e-mail alert saying we'll have to wait more days," said Pankaj Purohit, whose apartment is next to a marina in Jersey City, New Jersey. "We have already been waiting for five days."
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...

Obama's Job Creation Claims

Townhall.com ^ | November 3, 2012 | Political Calculations

President Obama has been claiming while out on the campaign trail that he has created over five million jobs since being sworn into office in January 2009.
Today, we're going to adapt the chart we normally feature after each monthly employment situation report to see what the real numbers are, by age group!
Our chart below reveals what we found.
Overall, we find that there are 743,000 fewer employed teens through October 2012 as compared to January 2009, while young adults between the ages of 20 and 24 saw their numbers increase by just 497,000. Adults Age 25 or older saw their numbers among the employed ranks of the U.S. workforce increase by a relatively lackluster 1,443,000.
Altogether, that brings President Obama's total jobs created for his presidency up to 1,197,000, about 76% below his claimed job creation figure of 5,000,000. Put another way, President Obama's net job creation ability is less than one-fourth as good as he claims it to be. And where teen employment is concerned, outright negative.
Corrected: Change in Number of Employed by Age Group Since Total Employment Peaked in November 2007 (through 2012) - Obama Job Gain Notes
All of the positive net gain in jobs for President Obama have come within the last three months after having been stalled out in the first half of 2012. This outcome is consistent with our observation that the U.S. economy went through a microrecession in the second quarter of 2012, followed by a much more robust performance in the third quarter.
We continue to anticipate that growth in the U.S. economy will decelerate off its third quarter pace, which will likely be more negatively affected by the disruptive effects of Hurricane Sandy in the northeastern United States than we had originally forecast.

It's Over!

Postponing

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With My Help...

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4 More...days!

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Message to Obama

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On The Record

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VOTE!

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COWARD!

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Obama Zombies

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You're Fired!

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Showering

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WHO?

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COLOR

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Tips

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My First Time

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Is this Ohio?

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Paul Begala: 'California, Illinois and New Jersey - Places Where They'd Hunt Romney Down With Dogs'

Newsbusters ^ | 11/2/12 | Noel Sheppard

Imagine the media outrage if a conservative commentator listed states where Barack Obama would be hunted down with dogs.

On CNN's OutFront Friday, liberal contributor Paul Begala said, "When Bush Sr. carried Pennsylvania, he also carried California and Illinois and New Jersey, places where they would hunt Romney down with dogs" (video follows with transcript and commentary):
PAUL BEGALA: It's a tough race. It's a tough year. Come on, [Obama's] not going to win Pennsylvania by ten or eleven or thirteen or whatever he won by last time. You know, Reihan might be right, but he's not. This is a bad move for Romney. It's going to disappoint frankly all those people who were counting on him in places where he actually might have a chance like Iowa, Colorado, Florida. Pennsylvania has not gone for a Republican for president since Reagan and Bush, and when - Bush Sr., not Bush Jr. - when Bush Sr. carried Pennsylvania, he also carried California and Illinois and New Jersey - places where they would hunt Romney down with dogs.
If a conservative commentator said something like this about Obama, that would be the end of his career.
Will Begala take any heat for this disgusting comment?
Stay tuned.

Survey shows voters' thoughts on character traits of Obama, Romney!

Knoxville News Sentinel ^ | 11/2/12 | BARTHOLOMEW SULLIVAN, Scripps Howard News Service

Results from an online survey posted on Scripps websites (including knoxnews.com) suggests people seek leadership, honesty, judgment and fairness in their next president but don't see either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama strongly possessing all of those traits.

Voters think character is an important determinant in selecting political candidates, according to polls cited by Neal H. Mayerson, whose non-profit Cincinnati-based VIA Institute on Character designed the online survey that was placed on several Scripps websites in recent weeks.

The nonscientific survey asked respondents to identify the top character traits they sought in the next president from a list of 24. It then asked them to identify the two candidates' top character traits.
Mayerson said 80 percent of respondents listed "leadership" as a trait they'd like to see in a chief executive. Seventy-five percent listed "honesty," while 53 percent chose "judgment" and 40 percent named "fairness."
"Across all respondents and within all sub-samples, Mitt Romney is seen by more people (in this survey) as possessing leadership than is President Obama," Mayerson said in analyzing the responses.
Similarly, survey respondents indicated Obama possesses more of the fourth-most important character trait -- fairness. Thirty-nine percent identified it as a core character trait found in the president while only 17 percent found Romney possesses the quality.
(Excerpt) Read more at knoxnews.com ...

Columbia alum reveals Obama had 2.6 GPA Columbia donor reveals Obama not Mensa material!

Daily Caller ^ | 11/01/12

The source for the 2.6 number is a successful Silicon Valley entrepreneur and a Columbia alumnus who maintains good ties with the university.

In 2004, after Obama’s successful speech at that year’s Democratic convention, a Columbia University official told him Barack Obama’s GPA, he explained to TheDC.

“This person told me that he [Obama] was a pre-law, poli-sci major, had a lot of incompletes, and as best could be determined after sorting through the incompletes, had a GPA of 2.6,” said the businessman, a former Marine Corps combat veteran.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/02/wealthy-columbia-univ-donor-school-told-me-obama-had-2-6-gpa/#ixzz2BEZxKtdn

(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...

Cowardly Lying [Benghazi Barack - 80% bull and 30% crap]

The American Thinker ^ | November 3, 2012 | William L. Gensert

Everyone has heard of Baghdad Bob...the guy who went on TV every night during the Iraqi War insisting to the world that Iraq was winning, despite American tanks rolling up behind him as he spoke.
....Baghdad Bob had one big lie: Saddam was winning. Benghazi Barack has a myriad of little lies, spinning a web of delusion and deceit with every telling.

He pretends he is the "energy president." This is perhaps his boldest fib. The refutation is seen on every corner, where gasoline prices are posted publicly for all to see. Yet he thinks if he says it, his media backers will run with it--and they have. But America is no longer buying his lies.
Many drive to work every day--if they are lucky enough to still have a job. Or...they drive the kids to activities--if their diminished cash flow still allows......
...And he's not done. By the time the EPA is finished killing the coal industry, and probably fracking in Barack II, the Sequel, the populace will be living with rolling blackouts and electric bills triple what they were in the bad old days of Bush....
He brags of preventing another depression. I often tell people that when I voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980, I prevented a nuclear war. At least I can make a case that my vote helped elect a man whose policy of peace through strength collapsed the Soviet Union, resulting in an end to the era of mutually assured destruction.
....The difference between a leader and a coward is that a leader does what is necessary, when it is necessary, for a greater good, despite the personal risks. A coward does what is expedient and beneficial for himself, despite the risk to others....
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...

Bank President Pulls Gun on Bank Robber (MO)

guns.com ^ | 1 November, 2012 | dabneybailey

You always hear stories of people pulling guns on bank tellers, but what about the other way around? When was the last time that you heard of a bank manager holding a bank robber at gun point? Peoples Bank & Trust President David W. Thompson of St. Louis, Missouri, turned the tables on a gun-toting thief with a weapon of his own.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that it started the same way that most robberies start: a masked-man walked into a bank, held up the place, and then walked out with a bag full of loot. He should have known better – in order to get in, he had to pass a sign explaining that the bank was a concealed carry-approved establishment. The official policy of the bank explains, “Management recognizes the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution as an unalienable right of all citizens.”
The robbery went off without a hitch, but Thompson wasn’t about to let 58-year-old Donald Ray Lee, who wore the Chucky mask from the film "Child's Play", just waltz out of his bank with a bag full of other peoples’ cash. He grabbed his Colt .380 handgun and went out into the parking lot to confront Lee, locking the door behind him. Once he was certain that there would be no collateral damage, he pointed his gun at Lee and said, “Sir, get out of the truck. You’re not going anywhere.”
The man put his hand in his pocket as if he had a gun, but Thompson warned, “You don’t want to go there. This will end badly.” He sounds cool as a cucumber, which Thompson explained was a product of the adrenaline: “I didn’t have time to get scared. I was excited. Your adrenaline pumps. He robbed a bank, he menaced my employees, and I don’t allow that.”
It turns out that it was all a bluff. The robber did not have a weapon of his own, so it was a piece of cake holding him until the cops showed up. They charged Lee with first-degree robbery in a bank heist and set his bail at a cool $50k.
Lee told the police that he had only gone to the bank to trick-or-treat. Maybe he never got the memo that Halloween is all about getting candy from strangers, not about nabbing about $5,000 in bank notes.
You always hear the pro-gun control argument that the world would be a lot safer if citizens could carry concealed weapons during their day-to-day lives. Well, this is clearly one case that supports that position. Thompson isn’t a bad guy, he’s just an average joe who also happens to have a concealed carry permit, a lifetime membership with the NRA, and a black-belt. It seems like Lee might have picked one of the worst banks in America to rob.

‘Ex-Gay’ Men Fight Back Against View That Homosexuality Can’t Be Changed !


By


LOS ANGELES — For most of his life, Blake Smith said, “every inch of my body craved male sexual contact.”

Mr. Smith, 58, who says he believes homosexual behavior is wrong on religious grounds, tried to tough it out. He spent 17 years in a doomed marriage while battling his urges all day, he said, and dreaming about them all night.

But in recent years, as he probed his childhood in counseling and at men’s weekend retreats with names like People Can Change and Journey Into Manhood, “my homosexual feelings have nearly vanished,” Mr. Smith said in an interview at the house in Bakersfield, Calif., he shares with his second wife, who married him eight years ago knowing his history. “In my 50s, for the first time, I can look at a woman and say ‘she’s really hot.’ ”
Mr. Smith is one of thousands of men across the country, often known as “ex-gay,” who believe they have changed their most basic sexual desires through some combination of therapy and prayer — something most scientists say has never been proved possible and is likely an illusion.
Ex-gay men are often closeted, fearing ridicule from gay advocates who accuse them of self-deception and, at the same time, fearing rejection by their church communities as tainted oddities. Here in California, their sense of siege grew more intense in September when Gov. Jerry Brown signed a law banning use of widely discredited sexual “conversion therapies” for minors — an assault on their own validity, some ex-gay men feel.
Signing the measure, Governor Brown repeated the view..
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...

Bill Maher Warns Romney Supporters: 'Black People Know Who You Are and They Will Come After You'!


http://newsbusters.org ^ | 11/03/2012 | Noel SHeppard

Bill Maher on HBO's Real Time Friday might have said one of the most disgraceful things uttered during the 2012 campaign season.

"If you're thinking about voting for Mitt Romney, I would like to make this one plea: black people know who you are and they will come after you"

Imagine for a moment the outrage if a conservative commentator said even jokingly to Obama supporters, "White people know who you are and they will come after you."
That would be the end of that person's career. Period. No questions asked. Done!
But Maher who's beloved by the Obama-loving media can say this with total impunity.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: HBO should be ashamed to have this disgusting man as one of its on air personalities. Period. End of story.

(Excerpt) Read more at newsbusters.org ...


Union halting power repair crews is top Democratic donor!

Washington Examiner ^ | 11/02/12 | Paul Bedard


The International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, cited in news reports for halting nonunion repair crews from helping to restore power in superstorm Sandy's New Jersey-New York path, is one of nation's top union donors to Democrats, a group President Obama last year praised in a visit to an IBEW training Center.


The Center for Responsive Politics, a public political spending watchdog, said IBEW has the nation's fifth highest spending political action committee, doling out nearly $2.3 million, 97 percent of which went to Democrats. According to the group, IBEW during this election cycle has given $2,928,973 to Democratic House and Senate candidates, and just $51,600 to Republicans. They have also helped raise money for Obama.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...