Friday, October 12, 2012

October Surprise: Consumer Confidence Gets Back to Sept 2007 Level (Bush) – Another Fed Bubble?


Confounded Interest

According to University of Michigan, consumer confidence has risen to Bush-era levels of September 2007.

Just to put it into context, I put a yellow line through the 100 level. We still have a long way to go to get to 100 from 83.1.
Perhaps consumers are reacting to The Feds driving mortgage rates down to historic low levels through QE3 ($40 billion per month purchase of agency MBS).

The Fed did produce a “Hail Mary” pass for the Administration by doing QEternity (or QE3-MBS). It seems to be working for consumer confidence, although mortgage lending is not increasing by much (except home equity loans — again). Mortgage refinancings are increasing thanks to the Administration’s 14 loan modification programs AND massive Federal Reserve intervention in the private market.

I doubt if the Vice Presidential debate had anything to do with the consumer confidence numbers {of course, the survey was taken prior to the debate). Personally, I feel less confident after Vice President Biden’s “The Joker” impression. After all, both said “Who do you trust?”


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