Forbes ^ | May 14, 2012 | Doug Schoen, Democratic pollster
There has been a subtle shift in the polls for President Obama — whose approval rating has dropped to 46% in the most recent polling conducted by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports – with disapproval at 53% in the Rasmussen poll and 47% in the Gallup survey.
The President’s approval numbers are mirrored in the most recent head-to-head data for General Election: Obama vs. Romney. The President is currently trailing Governor Romney by four points according to polling conducted by Rasmussen Reports between May 10-May 12th, with Romney leading 48%-44% — while the latest Gallup numbers show the race effectively tied with President Obama holding a one-point lead over Governor Romney (46%-45%).
What does this mean?
When the President’s approval rating was a couple of points higher, and his vote share was two or three points higher, it meant that despite the narrow margin, he held a significant 253-170 point lead in projected Electoral College votes.
But with this recent drop of a couple of points nationally in both job approval and vote share, it is almost certain that the President’s level of support will drop by a proportionate amount in swing states – if it has not dropped already...
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