Business Insider ^ | 05/15/2012 | Brett LoGiurato
The new CBS/New York Times poll out last evening is, on the surface, the biggest disaster for the Barack Obama campaign at this point in the 2012 election.
Down overall? Check. Voters frustrated with the economy and how things are going? Check. Gay marriage endorsement backfire? Check.
But this might be the worst underlier of all: Obama is even losing among women.
Now, before we delve deeper, we should point out the funky methodology that has some — ranging on the spectrum from the Obama campaign to the National Journal — questioning how the results hold up.
This is a "panel-back" survey — the same voters were polled this time as were polled in mid-April. Only 562 of the original 856 registered voters re-responded to the poll this time around.
Still, the poll oversamples Democrats — among registered voters, the sample pool is composed of 36 percent Democrats, 34 percent Independents and 30 percent Republicans.
Romney's overall lead stands at 46 percent to 43 percent. Last month, the two candidates were deadlocked. There are a few underliers that spell disaster for Barack Obama. First is the women vote. What the heck happened here? Last month, Obama led among women by 6 percentage points. In this poll, he's trailing Romney by 2 points in the women's vote. It's an even bigger shift when you consider other surveys, like last month's CNN poll that found Obama destroying Romney among women by 16 points.
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