Flopping Aces ^ | 05-15-12 | Warren Beatty
I was, the other day, trying to explain the word "fair" to a friend. Suddenly it occurred to me that I was trying to explain the definition from a statistics perspective, and that was the cause of the miscommunication. In statistics, the word "fair" means that probabilities of occurrence does not change each time an action or process (trial) is conducted. If a process is "fair," then exact probabilities of occurrence can be calculated regardless of initial conditions. We statisticians (besides being weird) understand the word "fair" because it has a very precise, unchanging meaning.
That is the reason why, in a Craps game, "loaded" dice always have the same appearance as regular dice, and that they are slipped into the game only when "serious" money is being wagered and the sucker cannot alter his wagering accordingly. Loaded dice are not fair from a wagering perspective because they alter probabilities of occurrence, thereby increasing the probability that the sucker will lose his wager. Besides, even without loaded dice, craps probabilities favor the person running the game. All he has to do is make the payoff, not welsh, if an individual sucker gets lucky.
That difficulty, the definition of "fair,"occurs quite often. As Jim Yardley said, "'Fair' is one of those warm, fuzzy words that allows the listener to define it to his own personal taste - and the definition changes from one specific case to another."
For example, Obama, during the Democrat Party primary debate, said that he would raise capital gains rates -- not because it would increase revenue, but because it was "fair." During the debate, Obama said, "...I would look at raising the capital gains tax for purposes of fairness." He continued, "...I also want to make sure is that our tax system is fair...."
The "problem" is that Obama did not define, precisely or otherwise, his definition of "fair." As Yardley says, we are left with, in this case, Obama's definition - "and the definition changes from one specific case to another." One thing you will never hear Obama explain is precisely what he means when he uses the word "fair."
In his 2012 State of the Union speech, Obama said, "... or we can restore an economy where everyone gets a fair shot, and everyone does their fair share...." But nowhere does he define what he means by "fair shot" or "fair share." I guess that he wants us to trust that his definition will be "fair."
(Excerpt) Read more at floppingaces.net...
