At 46% approval, Gallup’s new numbers show Barack Obama is still under the 50% he needs for reelection. With the exception of Harry Truman no president has been reelected with a sub 50% approval rating. The rest of Gallup’s message holds more bad news for Obama.
He hasn’t averaged 50% approval for a full month since last May when we killed bin Laden. His previous full month of 50% approval was February 2010.
Gallup reports the much talked about BIG lead Obama has with women really isn’t very big at all. In 2008 Obama won women 56/43. Al Gore and John Kerry both won women (with 54% and 51% respectively) and both lost anyway. Today Gallup says Obama’s approval with women is at 49%; off 7 points since 2008.
In 2008 Obama won 18 – 29 year olds 66/31; they now approve of Obama at just a 54% rate. He won Hispanics 67/31 but that’s down to 55% approval. Although only 45% of those over 65 voted for Obama, that’s down to 41%. Working your “retirement” as a Walmart greeter will do that.
Overall Democrat support has fallen 3 points to 83% which is important because it is moving in the wrong direction. His support among Independents has shrunk to 42% a 10 point slip from 2008.
Obama has even lost 6 points (95% now 89%) among Blacks. Of course this number will balloon to 100% on Election Day, but how can this be helpful to his reelection?
The problem with this number and the numbers for 18 to 29 year olds is enthusiasm to vote. Among both groups it is down sharply.
In March 2008 Blacks were 78% enthusiastic to vote and young voters were 76% enthusiastic to vote. Today both groups are 48% enthusiastic…umm, umm, umm!
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